About Big Ideas
A tradition since 2017, “Big Ideas” is ARK’s seminal document, offering a comprehensive analysis of technological convergence and its potential to revolutionise industries and economies at a global scale. At the heart of this report lies thorough research, meticulously conducted by ARK's investment team.
ARK seeks to deliver long-term capital appreciation by investing in the leaders, enablers, and beneficiaries of disruptive innovation. With a belief that innovation is key not only to growth but also to resilience, ARK emphasises the necessity of a strategic allocation to innovation in every investor's portfolio. This approach aims to tap into the exponential growth opportunities often overlooked in broad-based indices, while simultaneously providing a hedge against the risks posed by incumbents facing disruption.
TOPICS
Smart Contracts: Powering the internet-native financial system
If financial assets were to migrate to blockchain infrastructure at a rate similar to the adoption of the internet, and the take rates associated with decentralised financial services were a third those of traditional financial services, smart contracts could generate annual fees of more than $USD 450 billion.
Digital Wallets: Closing the loop with two-sided networks
According to ARK’s research, closed-loop consumer payments, merchant banking, and employee payroll/payments will increase select vertical software platforms’ revenues by 22-33% at an annual rate during the next seven years, from $USD 7 billion in 2023 to $USD 27-$50 billion in 2030.
Bitcoin In 2023: Demonstrating resilience and recovery after challenges in 2022
In 2023, bitcoin’s price surged 155%, reaching $USD 827 billion in market cap.
Technological Convergence
Catalysed by breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, the global equity market value associated with disruptive innovation could increase from 16% of the total to more than 60% by 2030. As a result, the annualised equity return associated with disruptive innovation could exceed 40% during the next seven years, increasing its market capitalisation from ~$USD 19 trillion today to roughly $USD 220 trillion by 2030.
Robotics: Generalising automation thanks to the convergence of AI software and hardware
As hardware and software costs decline according to Wright’s Law, AI should continue to improve productivity and create a new market opportunity for generalisable robotics that, at scale, exceeds $USD 24 trillion in revenue annually.
Digital Consumers: Transitioning toward digital leisure
According to ARK’s research, spending on digital leisure should take share from physical options and grow 19% at an annual rate during the next seven years, from $USD 7 trillion in 2023 to $USD 23 trillion in 2030.
Electric Vehicles: Lower battery costs powering EV adoption
ARK forecasts that electric vehicle sales will scale 33% at an annual rate during the next seven years, from roughly 10 million in 2023 to 74 million in 2030.
Multiomic Tools & Technology: Translating biological insights into economic value
According to ARK’s research, multiomic tools and technology could reduce research and development (R&D) spending per drug by more than 25%.
Artificial Intelligence: Scaling global intelligence and redefining work
The convergence of hardware and software could drive AI training costs down by 75% at an annual rate through 2030.
Reusable Rockets: Opening outer space for business
According to ARK’s research, satellite connectivity revenues could reach $USD 130 billion in 2030, still just a fraction of the roughly $USD 2 trillion in telecommunications revenue.
Autonomous Logistics: Reducing costs and reshaping supply chains
According to ARK’s research, autonomous delivery revenues could scale from essentially nil today to $USD 900 billion in 2030.
Bitcoin Allocation: Growing the role of Bitcoin in investment portfolios
During the last seven years, bitcoin’s annualised return has averaged ~44%, while that of other major assets has averaged 5.7%.
Precision Therapies: Curing disease more efficiently and less expensively
Based on ARK’s research, the enterprise value of companies focused on precision therapies could appreciate 28% at an annual rate during the next seven years, from ~$USD 820 billion in 2023 to ~$USD 4.5 trillion by 2030.
Robotaxis: Transforming urban transit safely and affordably
According to ARK’s research, robotaxi platforms could redefine personal mobility and generate $USD 28 trillion in enterprise value during the next five to ten years.
3D Printing: Reshaping manufacturing
According to ARK’s research, 3D printing revenues could scale ~40% at an annual rate during the next seven years, from ~$USD 18 billion today to ~$USD 180 billion in 2030.