How to Buy

          BIG IDEAS 2024

          Annual Research Report


          About Big Ideas

          A tradition since 2017, “Big Ideas” is ARK’s seminal document, offering a comprehensive analysis of technological convergence and its potential to revolutionise industries and economies at a global scale. At the heart of this report lies thorough research, meticulously conducted by ARK's investment team.

          ARK seeks to deliver long-term capital appreciation by investing in the leaders, enablers, and beneficiaries of disruptive innovation. With a belief that innovation is key not only to growth but also to resilience, ARK emphasises the necessity of a strategic allocation to innovation in every investor's portfolio. This approach aims to tap into the exponential growth opportunities often overlooked in broad-based indices, while simultaneously providing a hedge against the risks posed by incumbents facing disruption.


          Smart Contracts: Powering the internet-native financial system

          If financial assets were to migrate to blockchain infrastructure at a rate similar to the adoption of the internet, and the take rates associated with decentralised financial services were a third those of traditional financial services, smart contracts could generate annual fees of more than $USD 450 billion.

          Digital Wallets: Closing the loop with two-sided networks

          According to ARK’s research, closed-loop consumer payments, merchant banking, and employee payroll/payments will increase select vertical software platforms’ revenues by 22-33% at an annual rate during the next seven years, from $USD 7 billion in 2023 to $USD 27-$50 billion in 2030.

          Bitcoin In 2023: Demonstrating resilience and recovery after challenges in 2022

          In 2023, bitcoin’s price surged 155%, reaching $USD 827 billion in market cap.

          Technological Convergence

          Catalysed by breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, the global equity market value associated with disruptive innovation could increase from 16% of the total to more than 60% by 2030. As a result, the annualised equity return associated with disruptive innovation could exceed 40% during the next seven years, increasing its market capitalisation from ~$USD 19 trillion today to roughly $USD 220 trillion by 2030.

          Robotics: Generalising automation thanks to the convergence of AI software and hardware

          As hardware and software costs decline according to Wright’s Law, AI should continue to improve productivity and create a new market opportunity for generalisable robotics that, at scale, exceeds $USD 24 trillion in revenue annually.

          Digital Consumers: Transitioning toward digital leisure

          According to ARK’s research, spending on digital leisure should take share from physical options and grow 19% at an annual rate during the next seven years, from $USD 7 trillion in 2023 to $USD 23 trillion in 2030.

          Electric Vehicles: Lower battery costs powering EV adoption

          ARK forecasts that electric vehicle sales will scale 33% at an annual rate during the next seven years, from roughly 10 million in 2023 to 74 million in 2030.

          Multiomic Tools & Technology: Translating biological insights into economic value

          According to ARK’s research, multiomic tools and technology could reduce research and development (R&D) spending per drug by more than 25%.

          Artificial Intelligence: Scaling global intelligence and redefining work

          The convergence of hardware and software could drive AI training costs down by 75% at an annual rate through 2030.

          Reusable Rockets: Opening outer space for business

          According to ARK’s research, satellite connectivity revenues could reach $USD 130 billion in 2030, still just a fraction of the roughly $USD 2 trillion in telecommunications revenue.

          Autonomous Logistics: Reducing costs and reshaping supply chains

          According to ARK’s research, autonomous delivery revenues could scale from essentially nil today to $USD 900 billion in 2030.

          Bitcoin Allocation: Growing the role of Bitcoin in investment portfolios

          During the last seven years, bitcoin’s annualised return has averaged ~44%, while that of other major assets has averaged 5.7%.

          Precision Therapies: Curing disease more efficiently and less expensively

          Based on ARK’s research, the enterprise value of companies focused on precision therapies could appreciate 28% at an annual rate during the next seven years, from ~$USD 820 billion in 2023 to ~$USD 4.5 trillion by 2030.

          Robotaxis: Transforming urban transit safely and affordably

          According to ARK’s research, robotaxi platforms could redefine personal mobility and generate $USD 28 trillion in enterprise value during the next five to ten years.

          3D Printing: Reshaping manufacturing

          According to ARK’s research, 3D printing revenues could scale ~40% at an annual rate during the next seven years, from ~$USD 18 billion today to ~$USD 180 billion in 2030.

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